I watched an Olympic preview show on the Universal Sports channel last night and learned about a medal prediction model that Professor Dan Johnson of Colorado College has created. Professor Johnson has had 94% accuracy from 2000 - 2008 with his model. Johnson projects each nation's total medal count and gold medal count based on per-capita income, the country's population, it's political structure, it's climate and home-field advantage. Here's what he's predicting for the 2010 Winter Olympics. Let's see if he's right:
Canada - 27 medals - 5 gold medals
U.S. - 26 medals - 5 gold medals
Norway - 26 medals - 4 gold medals
Russia - most gold medals, with 8
At the Olympic Closing Ceremonies, three national flags are each hoisted onto flagpoles one at a time while their respective national anthems are played: The flag of Greece (honoring the birthplace of the Olympic games), the flag of the host country, and finally the flag of the host country of the next Summer or Winter Olympic Games. The one exception was in 2004, when the Olympic Games were held in Athens and only one flag (that of Greece) was raised.
The U.S. is third on the all time winter medal count with 216 (78 gold, 80 silver, 58 bronze).
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I'm surprised Russia continues to be the lead gold medal contender.
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